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The twelve month period from June 2000 culminated in the British general
election on 7th June 2001. Whereas in the UK as a whole, the opinion polls
were tolerably accurate in predicting the result, notably the final ICM
poll for The Guardian which achieved an average error of merely 0.5%,
a similar poll for The Scotsman was well adrift. In particular, the Scottish
ICM poll overestimated the SNP share of the vote by 5 percentage points,
and underestimated the Liberal-Democrat share by 3. ICM was not unusual
in this respect, for System Three's boosted poll (with 3019 respondents,
three times the usual) also overestimated the SNP by a similar amount,
as well as putting Labour's share at 50%. The fieldwork for this poll,
however, was carried out in the third week of May, while ICM's was done
a couple of days before the election itself. No newspaper in Scotland
has sought to query the accuracy of polling in Scotland this time round,
possibly because south of the border it was not an issue this time. The
only organisation to do so, and during the campaign itself, was the Scottish
Conservative party who complained to System Three that its predicted share
of the vote at 12% grossly underestimated its 'real' vote. In the event,
the Tories managed 15.6%, almost 2 percentage points lower than its share
in 1997, and no more was heard thereafter about polls being unfair to
the party.
The System Three monthly polls for The Herald were as follows:
The polls were fairly consistent, showing Labour well ahead of the SNP
apart from the fuel crisis blip in September/October 2000, when both parties
were level. By November, the status quo ante had been restored. The untimely
death of Donald Dewar, and the resignation of Alex Salmond as leader of
the SNP, both occurring in the later months of 2000, seemed to have little
impact on the relative fortunes of their parties. Neither the SQA fiasco
of August 2000, or the final throws of the Section 2a/28 saga, had little
impact on party fortunes, though the SNP showed up well in the July 2000
poll.
THE BRITISH ELECTION
One of the notable features of the 2001 election both north and south
of the border was the low turnout: in Scotland, a mere 58.1%. Did the
polls predict this? It is hard to say that they did, for System Three
poll found that 67% said they were 'certain' to vote, and ICM's June poll
put the figure at 66%. In these and other polls, there was a clear age
differential, with only 37% of 18-24 year olds saying they were certain
to vote, compared with 84% of people over 65 (ICM June 2001). Whatever
the actual abstention figure, the polls showed little evidence of party
advantage in the issue, for supporters of Labour and the SNP were just
as likely to vote as Tories and Liberal Democrats. That the Scottish Socialist
Party was unlikely to meet its target of 5% of the popular vote was reflected
in opinion poll ratings of around 3%, what they eventually achieved.
The SNP continues to have gender differential, with women less likely
to support them than men (18% to 26% respectively in the System Three
poll in May 2001). The Nationalists continue to poll much better among
young people than among the old, but is no doubt hit by high abstention
rates among the young. Labour dominates all social classes, and while
there is a differential (51% of working class people, compared with 37%
of the middle class), it remains the first choice among all classes (System
Three, May 2001).
In terms of electoral issues, health and education dominated, as they
did in the rest of Britain. Thus, health was mentioned by as many as 71%
as among the key issues, compared with 54% who mentioned education, 40%
unemployment and jobs, as well as law and order, and 28% the economy,
and 27% taxation. European issues were mentioned by only 8% (System Three,
May 2001). Health seems to have been a more important issue for women,
and for people over 65, and less so for men, and young people who had
greater concerns about jobs as well as education. In terms of political
preferences, there was broadly little difference among voters, though
Labour supporters were marginally more concerned about health, unemployment
and jobs; SNP voters in matters of unemployment and jobs; Liberal Democrats
in education, and transport; while Tory voters were most exercised by
taxation. European issues, which appear to have dominated the Tory agenda,
were mentioned by only 15% of Conservatives.
VOTING FOR HOLYROOD
While the focus of most polls, particularly preceding June 2001, was
on the British election, the polls kept a watch on voting intentions for
Holyrood. The System Three polls for first and second vote for the Scottish
parliament are as follows:
We can see that Labour and the SNP fight it out for first place. The
SNP do better in the autumn of 2000, while Labour make a quick recovery
after the fuel tax debacle, and maintain a lead over the SNP until the
June elections, apart from a slight dip in February and March of 2001.
The ICM June 2001 poll put the two parties neck and neck, with Labour
a point or two ahead. In terms of voting switching between Westminster
and Holyrood elections, voters indicated a high degree of consistency,
ranging from 93% of SNP voters who said they would be voting SNP at both,
to 83% for Labour (12% said they intended to switch to the SNP at Holyrood
elections). As regards voting switching between first and second Holyrood
votes, 75% of Tories said they would stay loyal, compared with 71% of
Nationalists (20% would switch to Labour), 66% of Labour voters (21% switching
to the SNP on the second ballot), and the Liberal Democrats retaining
only 41% on both ballots (23% to Labour, and 20% to the SNP). These figures
come from the ICM June 2001 poll.
This poll also asked people which level of government should raise and
collect taxes, and found that 37% said this should be done by the Scottish
Executive, 17% by the UK government (as at present), and 38% that it should
be a shared responsibility. Those favouring the Scottish option included
disproportionately young people, skilled manual workers, and SNP voters,
while 43% of Tories wanted London to collect all taxes. A previous ICM
poll in February 2001 found that 67% thought that the Scottish Executive
should be responsible for setting and collecting taxes in Scotland, with
27% in favour of the UK government.
In the ICM May 2001 poll for The Scotsman, 32% said that the Scottish
parliament is most relevant in dealing with issues affecting them, compared
with 21% who said it was Westminster. Forty two percent said both equally.
On the other hand, the UK government was deemed to have most influence
over the quality of the NHS and schools in Scotland (38%), compared with
27% who thought it was the Executive.
The ICM polls continued to run questions on preferred constitutional
options post-devolution.
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September 2000
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February 2001
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May 2001
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Independence in EU
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24%
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27%
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25%
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Devolved parliament
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55
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53
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56
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No devolution
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18
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16
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17
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base
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1000
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1003
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1000
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Support for Independence came disproportionately from young people (35%),
and SNP voters (50%), while opposition to the whole idea of devolution
was more likely to come from older people (23% of over 65s).
If a referendum were to be held on Independence, 45% said they would
vote favour, and 49% against (ICM, March 2001).
There was a significant increase in the ratings for the Scottish parliament.
'From what you have seen or heard, do you think that the Scottish parliament
has achieved a lot, a little, or nothing at all?'
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ICM polls
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September 2000
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February 2001
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A lot
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11%
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25%
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A little
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56
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56
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Nothing at all
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29
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14
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base
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1000
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1003
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System Three's poll for the Sunday Herald in February/March 2001, indicated
that 57% wanted the Scottish parliament to have more powers than at present,
marginally down from 62% in April 2000. Policy areas favoured to come
under the responsibility of Holyrood included taxation (58%), social security
(54%), railways (38%), and broadcasting (30%). Young people were more
likely than older people to want the Scottish parliament to have more
powers (67% and 48% respectively). While, unsurprisingly, SNP voters are
also in favour of more powers (88%), a majority of Labour voters (57%)
also favour such a proposal.
EUROPE
In a putative referendum vote on whether or not the UK should join the
single European currency, there are broadly twice as many opposing the
policy as supporting it. In the ICM June 2001 poll, for example, 28% said
they would vote 'yes', and 56% 'no', with 16% 'don't knows'. Those disproportionately
supporting a yes vote include: men (33%), young people (32%), the middle
class (35%), and Labour and Liberal Democrats (38% each). Nevertheless,
Europe remains a political issue of relatively low significance in Scottish,
as in British, politics, with only 18% saying that it is a crucial issue
determining how they would vote in a general election (ICM, June 2001).
The next twelve months should see a strengthening of the Scottish political
agenda, given that the British general election has taken place, and a
Scottish election is scheduled for May 2003. While no elections will take
place until then, Scottish politics are likely to continue to be vibrant
and contested, and we are indebted to both System Three and ICM, and to
their sponsors, The Herald and The Scotsman, for providing continuing
investment in this important aspect of Scottish life.
APPENDIX
System Three carried out monthly polls for The Herald, and The Sunday
Herald, with sample sizes at or around 1000 cases, with the exception
of its June 2001 poll which had a boosted sample of 3019.
ICM carried out the following polls, with sample sizes at or around 1000:
September 2000, for The Scotsman; February 2001 for Scotland on Sunday;
March 2001 for The News of the World; May 2001 for The Scotsman; June
2001 for The Scotsman; and June 2000 for Media House.
David McCrone
Professor of Sociology
University of Edinburgh
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