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The year mid-1999 to mid-2000 was a relatively quiet one
in Scottish politics as far as elections went. Only the Ayr by-election
which the Conservatives won to give them their first and only constituency
MSP was the exception. Nevertheless, the bedding down of the Scottish
Parliament, and in particular the controversies encountered along the
way notably over section 2a provided plenty of work for the polling companies.
System Three continued to carry out their monthly tests of voting intentions
for The Herald; ICM polled for Scotland on Sunday in January and The Scotsman
in February, as well as the Ayr by-election; in March, and MORI focussed
on section 28/2a for The Sunday Herald in January, as well as carrying
out work for the BBC.
As far as voting intentions for a Scottish parliament were concerned,
Labour was marginally ahead of its nearest challengers, the SNP, for much
of the year, with the exception of March/April, and ended up in May with
a putative 55 seats to 42 for the SNP. The other parties made little impact
on this two-party struggle, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of the
Liberal Democrats on the first vote, but falling behind on the second.
The 'others', notably the Scottish Socialist Party which showed at around
4% on the first vote and 5% on the second, and the Scottish Greens, on
2% and 4% respectively, confirmed the multi-party nature of the new parliament.
On the other hand, Labour continued to have a commanding lead over the
SNP in the Westminster vote, by as much as 2 to 1, with Conservatives
and Liberal Democrats at just over 10% each. What such findings seemed
to confirm is that the SNP continues to push Labour hard in Edinburgh,
while Labour's majority for Westminster elections looks secure, whatever
travails the party encounters south of the border.
THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT
In the first year of the new parliament, it was inevitable that it would
be the focus of attention. The ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday (with 1249
with a boost of 250 of 18-24 year olds) showed twice as many judging that
the parliament had been good, as opposed to bad, for Scotland (43% to
21%), with 36% don't knows. Young people (18-24) were more likely to give
a favourable response (57%) than older people (29%). The Scotsman in its
February poll (N=502) decided to rewrite the results to give the startling
headline 'Devolution achieving nothing, say voters', so that 91% of people
in Scotland were presented as saying that the parliament had achieved
'little or nothing'. This turned out to be a fairly inexact example of
headline writing, for while 5% said the parliament had achieved 'a lot',
and 64% 'a little', 27% said 'nothing at all'. To conflate the last two
categories into 'little or nothing' within the meaning of that phrase
in the English language seemed to many decidedly odd and misleading especially
after a mere 5 months of full session. That same poll showed that almost
two-thirds would still vote in favour of a parliament in a referendum,
and 29% against. Similarly, 48% judged the parliament to be 'good for
Scotland', and only 13% 'bad', with supporters mainly among the young
and SNP voters. Surprisingly, perhaps, fully 68% thought that 'further
political change' would be necessary (and 83% of the young), which makes
the choice of headline doubly odd. If the newspaper had chosen the headline
'Devolution Not Enough' it would have been a more accurate reflection
of the findings, but possibly not to the liking of its current management.
This poll was one of three such focusing on devolution, and carried out
in Scotland (N=502), England (N=507), and Wales (N=317), and hence with
larger than usual sampling errors of 6% or more which means that we ought
to treat differences of about 12 percentage points as meaningful. However,
the findings are indicative. The English results were particularly interesting
in that they showed respondents not at all opposed to Home Rule, and even
a substantial minority in favour of Independence. Thus, 54% of respondents
in England judged the Scottish parliament to have achieved ' a lot' (9%)
or 'a little' (45%). Similarly, 50% of respondents in England thought
devolution had been good for Scotland and Wales in principle (as institutions),
and 40% good in practice (including individuals and parties involved).
Almost half (47%) thought that further political change would be necessary
in Scotland (and 49% in Wales). While there was a preference broadly for
the devolved status quo (54%), fully 46% - and 61% of young English people
- said they supported the idea of a fully Independent Scotland, with 36%
opposing it. Among respondents in the Scottish poll, support for devolution
stood at 46%, with 27% preferring Independence. In Wales, there appears
to have been a shift in support for an assembly compared with the actual
result in September 1998, with young people, Labour and Plaid Cymru supporters
more strongly in favour. As regards the Welsh Assembly, those thinking
that it had achieved 'nothing' (48%) marginally outweighed those thinking
that it achieved a lot (4%) or a little (40%), and again, 62% believed
that further political change would be necessary. In all three countries,
devolution has been broadly welcomed, but most people expect further change
will be required.
One of the interesting features of post-devolution polls is that while
a majority of people support a Home Rule parliament, compared with around
a quarter for Independence, when asked how they would vote on a referendum
on Independence, the yes/no vote is more or less evenly split. Thus, in
the ICM January 2000 poll, 47% said they would vote yes, and 43% no, with
yes voters disproportionately young, working class, and Catholic. Labour
voters split 44% for and 48% against Independence. Nevertheless, most
people (69%) do not expect Independence to happen within the next ten
years, with even a majority of SNP voters (61%) believing this. Twice
as many people (38% to 20%) think that Independence would make them worse
off economically than better off, with the young, working class, SNP voters,
and Catholics being more optimistic.
NATIONAL IDENTITY
As regards national identity, 32% would describe themselves as Scottish
not British, 28% more Scottish than British, 27% equally Scottish and
British, 3% more British than Scottish, and 9% British not Scottish, results
broadly in line with previous findings. Once more, young people, the working
class, Catholics and SNP voters are disproportionately at the 'Scottish'
end of the spectrum, suggesting that such people are the core of support
for Home Rule, Independence and further constitutional change.
EUROPE
The ICM January poll also confirmed opposition to a European single currency
in Scotland, with 58% saying no, and 30% yes. Those disproportionately
in favour included Catholics and Liberal Democrats, with Conservatives
the most hostile. Nevertheless, fully 79% expect the UK to join a single
currency, and within five years.
MULTI-LEVEL DEMOCRACY
The creation of a Scottish parliament has also generated a new set of
issues concerning which level - Scottish, British or European - is deemed
the most important in people's lives. The ICM January poll, for example,
found that 51% thought that the Scottish parliament is (present tense)
'the most important in deciding Scotland's future', while 31% thought
it was Westminster, and 13% the European parliament. Another poll by MORI
for the BBC in April 2000 asked people 'which body do you think will have
the most influence on your own and your family's life in 20 years time?',
and found that 37% said the Scottish parliament, 33% the European parliament,
and only 17% Westminster. Those who thought that the Scottish parliament
in its first year had done a good job were more likely to think that the
Scottish parliament would be the most important (52%), while those who
gave it a poor rating in its first year were more likely to opt for the
European parliament (36%) rather than Westminster (25%). Either way, the
British parliament seemed to be losing its influence.
SECTION 2a
One of the key controversies in the early months of 2000 concerned the
Scottish executives plans to repeal Section 2a. Both the ICM poll for
The Scotsman, and the MORI poll for the Sunday Herald, in January 2000
asked about people's attitudes to repeal. ICM asked: 'At the moment the
law says that schools should not teach anything that promotes homosexuality.
Do you think that this law should remain as it is, or should it be abolished?'.
Sixty four per cent thought that the law should remain, and 31% that it
should be abolished. MORI asked: 'The government is planning to end the
law which bans local authorities from promoting the teaching of homosexuality
in our schools. In light of this, which one of the following two statements
comes closest to your own view: the ban should remain and schools should
not be allowed to promote the teaching of homosexuality to our children'
(60%); the ban should end, and schools should decide on how homosexuality
is taught to our children' (36%). In each case, men were more likely than
women to want to retain the ban (in the ICM poll, 71% to 57%; and in the
MORI poll, 67% to 53%). On a series of questions about personal and sexual
morality, women were significantly more liberal than men. MORI also asked
150 headteachers in Scotland for their views, and found that 56% supported
repeal, and 29% were opposed.
What both ICM and MORI polls showed, in addition, was that Catholics
were no more likely than anyone else to wish to retain the ban, despite
the high profile campaign by church leaders such as Cardinal Winning.
MORI found that 60% of people agreed with Winning's reported statement
that homosexuality was a perversion, and once more Catholics sided with
the majority. Sixty nine per cent of headteachers disagreed with Winning.
The ICM poll confirmed the liberal stance of both the Scottish population
as well as Catholics, with 66% happy for the law on abortion to remain
as it is (62% of Catholics), and 81% agreeing that contraceptive advice
should be given to children under the age of 16 (76% of Catholics). Similarly,
seven out of ten thought that sex education made no difference as to whether
teenagers would have sex or not, the same proportion of Catholics. One
can only conclude that the high profile campaign against repeal of section
2a did not tap into a presumed conservative stance on moral issues impugned
to Scots, and to Catholics in particular, by campaigners and press commentators
alike. The willingness of some journalists to assume this, in spite of
consistent survey evidence to contrary, was one of the more depressing
feature of the campaign. It seemed as if in some quarters anecdotal comment
as well as personal prejudice counted for more than a wealth of scientific
evidence. As regards the discussion of homosexuality in schools, 59% of
respondents in the MORI survey thought that to 'teach children that homosexuality
is neither right nor wrong, and should be tolerated as a way of life',
with only 14% that it was wrong and should not be tolerated. There was
a general conception that Scotland is tolerant of the ways of life of
minority groups, with 63% agreeing, and 34% disagreeing. The young were
marginally less inclined to take the optimistic line than the old.
ELECTORAL REFORM IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT
System Three for The Herald carried out a poll in July 1999 on the introduction
of proportional representation in local government in Scotland, and found
strong support for reform, with 54% in favour and 21% against. Interestingly,
there was support across all political parties for the change, including
Labour who would have most to lose. In regional terms, support was strongest
in Lothian, Central and the North-East, and lowest in Highlands and Islands,
where the tradition of non-party politics is strongest. Even in Labour's
heartlands of Glasgow and the West support for PR was strong, on 53% and
48% respectively. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, this changes
if and when the Scottish Executive introduces reform following the Kerley
Committee's report due out later in the year.
THE AYR BY-ELECTION
The only piece of electoral politics which took place in the period of
review was the Scottish parliamentary by-election for the Ayr constituency,
which the Tories had high hopes of winning, especially as it had been
caused by the resignation of the sitting Labour member on the grounds
that he did not find the job challenging enough. The March poll for The
Scotsman found that 36% intended to vote Conservative, 27% SNP, 26% Labour,
8% other (mainly SSP), and 3% for the Liberal Democrats. In the event,
the result was as follows:
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Conservative
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39.4%
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SNP
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28.9
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Labour
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22.1
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SSP
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4.2
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Lib Dems
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2.5
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Others
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2.9
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Although the opinion poll indicated that there was stout opposition (74%)
to the repeal of section 2a, there was little evidence that the issue
itself had swayed the electorate in the Tories' favour. In truth, this
was a constituency which, based on its socio-economic profile, the Tories
should have won in May 1999.
HUNTING
As a prelude to Mike Watson's introduction of a law in the Scottish Parliament
to ban fox-hunting, hare coursing and hunting with terriers, MORI carried
a poll in March 2000 of 991 respondents. Seventy four per cent opposed
hunting wild mammals with dogs (56% strongly), with weakest support in
south Scotland (51%). Labour and SNP voters were strong supporters of
the measure, and there was little difference by gender or age.
NEVER ON A SUNDAY?
Finally, MORI carried out a poll for BBC Scotland in February-March 2000
in Lewis and Harris on Sunday travel and shopping (N=750). What surprised
most people was that, contrary to expectation, around 60% of islanders
supported plans for ferry and air links to the mainland on the Sabbath,
with 33% opposed. The two major denominations, the Church of Scotland,
and the Free Church of Scotland, split 66/29, and 45/48 respectively.
In other words, there is a substantial body of Free Church support for
Sunday sailings and travel, and 44% of Free Church members indicated that
they would use ferries on the Sabbath if necessary (54% would not). There
was strong support from islanders for a referendum to be held (72%). On
the other hand, there was opposition to Sunday shopping (63% to 27%),
from both denominations - 65% of Kirk members and 76% of Free Church members.
APPENDIX
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System Three carried out monthly polls for The Herald thoughout the
period focusing on voting intentions for the Scottish and British
parliaments, as well as: PR in Local Government Elections, for The
Herald (July 1999: N=1019); Party Leaders in Scotland, for The Herald
(March 2000; N=1030); the Scottish Parliament, for BBC Scotland (May
2000: N=999).
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ICM carried out the following polls:
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for Scotland on Sunday, January 2000, N=1249, with booster of 250
18-24 year olds;
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for The Scotsman, February 2000, N=502 in Scotland; N=507 in England;
and N=317 in Wales;
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for The Scotsman, March 2000, N=1001 in Ayr constituency.
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MORI carried out the following polls:
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for The Sunday Herald, January 2000, N=500; plus 150 headteachers
of state secondary schools in Scotland;
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for BBC Scotland, February-March 2000, N=750 in Lewis and Harris;
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for The Sunday Herald, March 2000, N=991.
The Scottish Affairs editors are grateful to the polling organisations
System Three, ICM and MORI, and their respective sponsors, The Herald,
The Scotsman, Scotland on Sunday, The Sunday Herald, and BBC Scotland
for permission to use these polls.
David McCrone
Professor of Sociology
University of Edinburgh
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