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Opinion polls are not precision instruments, although they are frequently
taken by newspapers and their readers to be such. Polls are, however,
fairly crude devices for charting the general trends in public opinion
as it forms and shifts around the major issues of the day. In recent years,
polls have made the news as much as reflected it, as newspapers and political
parties have tried to measure, and thus influence, public opinion. There
has been no shortage of polls this year, in the run-up to the first Scottish
parliamentary election. System Three has continued to carry out its monthly
polling for The Herald, supplemented by two in April, just ahead of the
May election. Its blockbuster poll of mid-April - headlined by The Herald
as 'SNP in freefall' - appeared to have an independent effect on party
endeavours, and seemingly brought about a change in SNP strategy in the
final three weeks of the campaign. The Scotsman's pollsters, ICM, carried
out fourteen polls between July 1998 and May 1999 for The Scotsman and
its sister paper, Scotland on Sunday. Polls for The Herald's new sister
paper, The Sunday Herald, were carried out by MORI.
How well did the polls predict the outcome? In general, they did pretty
well, especially ICM which polled up to 3 days before the election, and
managed to get things fairly accurate. The Herald's polls appeared to
be less accurate, but they carried out fieldwork for their last poll 10-14
days before the election. In general, all the polls over-estimated Labour's
lead, especially on the 'list' vote, for no-one predicted that they would
barely get a third of the vote. Similarly, in general terms the polls
under-estimated support for the Conservatives and the Liberal-Democrats,
while picking up on regional concentrations for the Greens, the Scottish
Socialist Party and Dennis Canavan was always going to be much more difficult.
In broad terms, both System Three and ICM caught how the SNP lost its
lead over Labour in mid-1998, although the contest was a much closer run
thing between these two parties according the System Three. Apart from
a narrowing late in 1998, ICM polls showed a fairly consistent gap between
Labour and SNP of around 10 to 15 points throughout 1999. System Three
suggested that this only happened from March onwards. On the other hand,
both sets of polls showed a sizeable gap in putative elections for Westminster
of the order of 20-25 percentage points.
ELECTION ISSUES
(a) party leaders
Nineteen ninety nine began with Alex Salmond showing strongly as a potential
First Minister, but that this diminished as his party's fortunes declined
in the polls. By April/May, his ratings were virtually half those of Donald
Dewar as to who would make the best First Minister. In an ICM February
poll, Salmond was ahead of Dewar when it came to 'standing up for Scotland'
(84 to 73), being 'in touch with people like me' (55 to 48), 'personality'
(57 to 34) and 'arrogance' (42 to 34). Dewar came out ahead on 'experience'
(88 to 74), 'honesty' (49 to 45), and being the best person to negotiate
with the UK and EU (46 to 39).
(b) attitudes to Independence
Support for Independence in a referendum also went the way of general
opinion poll trends, with a strong showing up to January 1999, and thereafter
a preference for the status quo. Support for Independence consistently
came from young people (18-34), and from Catholics, while support from
semi- and unskilled workers shifted away as the Labour party made it more
of an issue in the campaign ('Divorce is expensive'). A poll in early
April suggested that voters were beginning to judge as negative the economic
effects of Independence, with 18% saying they and their families would
be better off, 36% that it would make no difference, and 33% that they
would be worse off. In the blockbuster poll for The Herald in mid-April,
System Three found that 50% thought Independence would never happen, while
26% thought that it would occur within 10 years. An ICM poll for The Guardian,
however, carried out in mid-April 1999, indicated that support for Scottish
Independence had risen across Britain in general from 39% in 1997 to 53%
in 1999. Well over 60% also think that Scotland will become independent
within 10 years.
(c) coalition government
From the outset, the polls were indicating that no party was likely to
have an overall majority, though Labour came fairly close in some of them
a few weeks before the election. Voters did not seem fazed by the prospect,
and indeed, preferred it to a Labour minority administration. The one
which came to pass, between Labour and the Liberal Democrats was marginally
preferred to one between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, but only by
a matter of a few percentage points.
(d) A penny for Scotland
At the outset of the election campaign, the SNP opted to gamble on a
policy of adding the penny which chancellor Gordon Brown had indicated
he would cut from income tax in the UK budget. The first poll taken after
the SNP decision by ICM suggested that for most people (65%) it would
make no difference either way to how they intended to vote. Seventeen
percent said it would make them less likely to vote SNP, and 12% that
it would make them more likely to. Thirty nine percent, however, thought
that the SNP should have opted for Brown's tax cut.. Undecided voters
were broadly in line with those who claimed they had already made up their
mind, suggesting that the political effect of the ploy was broadly neutral.
An April poll for System Three indicated that more people were inclined
to support the SNP policy on income tax than the Labour policy (52% to
37%), with a particular appeal to young people and strong resistance from
those over 65.
(e) The Kosovo effect
Not content with gambling on the electoral effects of tax changes, Alex
Salmond's TV broadcast in March on the impact of bombing in the former
Yugoslavia became a major campaign issue in its own right. Despite what
government ministers tried to claim, the electoral effect was broadly
neutral. In an early April poll, ICM found little evidence that the government's
attack on the SNP had made a difference. Only 36% agreed with Salmond
that the bombing would not help Kosovo, and 47% that the bombing would
work (support was disproportionately strong among men and Labour voters).
In general, however, there was uncertainty about the effects of bombing,
especially among women. Electors divided in their judgement about the
effects of the bombing broadly along party lines, with SNP supporters
splitting 48% to 40% that it would not help the people of Kosovo, and
Labour supporters 59% to 29% that it would. A poll later in April found
that the war made little difference to whether people felt British or
not (57% said it made none). People were split as to whether the bombing
would help the people of Kosovo (44% to 37%), and 50% agreed with sending
British troops as part of a NATO force (37% disagreed). As to the political
effects of Salmond's intervention, almost two-thirds claimed that it had
made no difference on how they would vote, and of the rest, 20% said it
made them less likely, and 9% more likely to vote SNP. On the other hand,
a MORI poll for The Sunday Herald in April 1999 found only 11% agreeing
with Salmond's stance on the war, and 45% who backed Labour's position.
The problem for the SNP was that their poll ratings and those of the leader
were declining in March/April, regardless of the effect of the war in
Kosovo.
GENERAL THEMES
(a) religion
Commendably, ICM have included a question on religion in their polls
from July 1998, which they have subsequently used as a classification
variable. In general, the polls confirm that Catholics are more likely
to vote Labour, but that their continuing antipathy to the Tories is marked
by as much as a ten point differential compared with Protestants or those
of other religions or none. They confirm that it is not hostility to the
SNP which explains Catholic attachment to Labour, but anti-Conservative
feeling. Indeed, support for the SNP is broadly in line with national
trends generally. They are also more likely to support Independence than
other Labour voters, and voters in general. This is a consistent feature
of the polls over the last twelve months, even when semi- and unskilled
manual workers who started out as supporters of Independence came back
into line with Labour thinking.
(b) education
Given the salience of education as a political issue in the last year,
the responses to the late September 1998 poll are revealing. Despite the
fairly pessimistic assessments made by government ministers and by sections
of the media, it is interesting that the Scottish education system gets
a fairly clean bill of health from the Scottish public. Hence, only 22%
thought that the system was deteriorating, compared with 24% who thought
it was improving, and 43% that not much had changed. More people thought
it had actually improved since their own school-days, especially older
people and semi- and unskilled manual workers. The system was deemed to
be better than in England by almost half of respondents, especially by
older people and Conservatives. As regards who should be responsible for
education, almost two-thirds were happy that it should be the Scottish
parliament, rather than local authorities (25%), or Westminster (5%).
Two-thirds indicated support for using the parliament's tax-varying powers
to increase spending on education in particular. Teachers too were highly
thought of. Seventy eight percent thought they were hard-working; about
the same proportion denied they were overpaid; and seven out of ten respondents
believed them to be in touch with children , and to be generally undervalued
by society. Roughly the same proportion thought that there was insufficient
discipline in schools, and marginally more thought that qualifications
were easier to get nowadays than 5 or 10 years ago.. .
Broadly supportive attitudes towards the education system were shared
across the country, and there were no significant differences by social
class, age, gender, or political support. The only deviation was with
regard to the abolition of the assisted places scheme by Labour, which
was supported by two-thirds of respondents, but only 42% of Tories. There
was little support for private education even if people could afford it,
by a margin of 60% to 35%, although there was broad balance between those
who supported the principle of private education and those who did not.
The general picture is one of support for education in Scotland, something
which politicians do not always seem to grasp.
MORI also included a question on separate Catholic schooling in their
March 1999 poll for The Sunday Herald. This showed that 56% disapproved
of the system, with 25% supporting it. Catholics themselves supported
separate schooling by 62% to 28%, while Protestants disapproved by 62%
to 16%.
(c) national identity
The progress to a Scottish parliament generated press speculation that
it was generating anti-English attitudes, and a more exclusive sense of
Scottishness. In November 1998, ICM found that there was little support
for such views. Fully two-thirds agreed with the statement that they liked
the English a little or a lot, with only one in ten expressing dislike.
SNP supporters were just as likely as those of other parties to hold such
views. A mere 16% thought that people's views of the English had become
more negative in the last five years, and most (62%) that they had not
actually changed much. In the same November poll, ICM tried out a 'Scottish
passport' question which has the potential to be a useful addition to
the battery of questions on national identity in the last few years. For
that reason, it is reproduced in full here: Respondents were asked: 'Which
of the following types of people should be entitled to a Scottish passport?
(Percentage agreeing is indicated alongside).
people born in Scotland and who currently live in Scotland: 94%
people born in Scotland but who live out of Scotland: 81%
people not born in Scotland but currently living in Scotland: 55%
people not born in Scotland, not currently living in Scotland, but
who have at least one parent born in Scotland: 50%
people not born in Scotland, not currently living in Scotland, but
who have at least one grandparent born in Scotland: 26%
everyone in the UK: 31%
As regards social variation, the most noticeable aspect is that Catholics
are more 'liberal' in their definitions as to who should be allowed a
Scottish passport, while SNP supporters are little different from the
rest of the population in these matters. That almost one-third thought
that everyone in the UK should be entitled to a Scottish passport is difficult
to interpret, and slightly odd, but is possibly a reflection of a desire
to be inclusive as possible of national identity.
In late April 1999, ICM asked the more conventional 'Moreno' question
about national identity, the results of which were broadly in line with
previous surveys although slightly more claimed a 'British not Scottish'
identity:
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disproportionate claims
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Scottish not British: 25%
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SNP 40%; RC 29%
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More Scottish than British: 32%
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C2 37%; SNP 40%; young 35%
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equally Scottish and British: 26%
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over-65 35%; Cons 34%
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more British than Scottish: 3%
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British not Scottish: 11%
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Cons 21%; over-65 15%; ABC1 14%
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(d) press and media
The November 1998 ICM poll surveyed newspaper readership in Scotland,
which confirmed marked regional variations. In general terms, the Daily
Record, read by one-third of Scots, remains well ahead of The Sun with
19%. The two Scottish broadsheets, The Herald (12%), and The Scotsman
(9%) have more readers than the 'English' broadsheets (The Times, Guardian,
Independent, Telegraph, and Financial Times, in that order) put together
(13%). In terms of social class readership, Scotland's middle classes
(ABC1) read The Herald (25%), The Scotsman (23%), and the Daily Record
(18%), while manual workers (DE) read the Record (40%), and the Sun (28%).
Glasgow readers prefer The Herald (19%) to The Scotsman (9%), while their
Edinburgh counterparts reverse the order with 34% reading The Scotsman,
and only 4% The Herald. The Daily Record however is read by almost 50%
of Glaswegians, but only 21% in the Lothians, and 13% in the North East,
where it is outsold by The Sun (19%). The Press and Journal, however,
outsells them all in the North East with 23%. The general picture, then,
is of significant regional variation in newspaper readership in Scotland.
The media also made the news in November 1998 when the governors of the
BBC rejected proposals for a Scottish opt-out for the early evening six
o'clock news bulletin. The poll carried out by ICM should Scottish opinion
evenly balanced, with support for a 'Scottish Six' coming disproportionately
from working class people, Glaswegians, and SNP supporters. Polls in other
newspapers at the time, however, showed strong support than this for the
Scottish Six. A poll in the Sunday Mail in late November showed 61% in
favour and just 23% against, and the monthly System Three poll for The
Herald in late November showed 69% in favour and 20% against.
(e) Europe
The introduction the Euro in January 1999, which the government chose
to sit out, was the subject of an ICM poll for The Scotsman. It indicated
that Scottish opinion was evenly balanced between those who supported/opposed
the UK joining the new currency. Only one-fifth took the view that the
UK should never join (including almost 30% of SNP supporters), and just
under half agreeing that Britain should join 'when the conditions were
right'. Nevertheless, nine out of ten expected this to happen at some
time in the future, on average within five years. Seventy one percent
took the view that joining the Euro would make no difference to a vote
on Scottish Independence.
THE ELECTION AFTERMATH
Both ICM and System Three carried out polls in early June in the first
few weeks of the Scottish parliament. These suggested that, contrary to
press speculation, the Liberal Democrats had no suffered unduly from coalition
politics. The System Three poll put Labour on 44% on a putative constituency
vote, and 36% on the list, with the SNP on 28% and 30% respectively, the
Liberal Democrats on 13% and 17%, the Conservatives 10% and 10%, and 'others'
holding up at 5% and 8%. The ICM poll suggested that there was broad support
for the coalition (45%), but 42% took the view that Labour should have
gone it alone. 'Having our parliament' was deemed to be good by 45%, and
bad by 15%, but a significant 40% said they did not know. On the other
hand, fully 62% said that the Scottish parliament mattered most, compared
with only 26% for its Westminster counterpart, and a mere 7% for the European
parliament. This was in some contrast with responses to a MORI poll for
The Sunday Herald which was also carried out in June 1999, where 44% thought
that the Westminster parliament 'makes the most difference to your life',
compared with 38% for the Scottish parliament, and 11% for the European
parliament.
CONCLUSION
The year 1998-9 has been one of the most significant in Scottish history,
and the opinion polls and their sponsors have played their part in monitoring
changing attitudes in Scotland over that period. As the parliament beds
down, it will continue to be important to gauge public opinion, and we
are particularly fortunate in Scotland to have such high quality and significant
tests of public opinion to rely on.
APPENDIX
(a) System Three carried out the following polls for The Herald:
(b) ICM carried out the following polls for The Scotsman and Scotland
on Sunday:
June 1999: N=1002
May 1999: N=1000; N=1005
April 1999: N=1013; N=1006; N=11 16
Mar. 1999: N=1005; N=1009
Feb. 1999: N=1009; N=1014
Jan. 1999: N=1012
Nov. 1998: N=1010
Sept. 1998: N=1220; N=1209;
July 1998: N=1209
June 1998: N=1002;
(c) MORI carried out polls for The Sunday Herald of 1000 respondents
in March-June 1999.
The Scottish Affairs editors are grateful to the polling organisations
System Three, ICM and MORI, and their respective sponsors, The Herald,
The Scotsman/Scotland on Sunday, and The Sunday Herald for permission
to use these polls.
June 1999
David McCrone
Professor of Sociology
University of Edinburgh
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