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Opinion polling since the general election of 1997 which swept Labour
to power at Westminster, and the Tories out of Scotland, can be divided
into two phases. The first, from May 1997 until the referendum on a Scottish
parliament in September, charted the movement (or lack of it) in Scottish
public opinion anent a parliament. The second phase focused on the likely
voting intention for that parliament in the context of Westminster voting.
THE REFERENDUM
With hindsight, always a wonderful thing in politics, we can see, in
John Smith's phrase, the settled will of the Scottish people. Both ICM
polls for The Scotsman, and System Three polls for the Guardian showed
consistent support of around 3 to 1 for a parliament in principle (question
1), and on tax-varying powers, around 2 to 1. Figure 1 plots the 'yes'
vote on both questions in the ICM/Scotsman polls, and if we discount the
'don't knows' (which run at less than 10% on question 1, and somewhat
higher on question 2), then both ICM and System Three can take considerable
credit in predicting the result. For example, ICM's final poll (discounting
don't knows) gave a yes vote on question 1 of 72%, and on question 2 of
59%, compared with actual results of 74% and 63.5% respectively.
System Three's final poll put the predicted result at 75% and 59%. Both
polling organisations slightly underestimated the yes vote on the second
question, which is likely to have been the result of differential turnout.
Support for double-yes votes was most likely to be found among males,
18-34 year olds, and working-class voters, mainly in the Central Belt
of Scotland. While the Referendum was of course about people's attitudes
to a devolved parliament, there was relatively little change in opinions
about constitutional options.
The effects of a Scottish parliament were deemed to be positive. In the
August 1997 poll for ICM, 73% thought it would bring fairer representation;
71% that it would bring government closer to the people; 66% that it usher
in new talent; 58% that it create a new political consensus; and they
were evenly divided between those who thought it would generate 'jobs
for the boys' (47%), and 46% disagreeing. There was not strong support
for the government's view that the new parliament would strengthen ties
with the rest of the UK (only 17% thought so), with the largest number
(43%) that it would have no difference. A third thought it would lead
to the break-up of the UK. The sense of there being a settled will was
confirmed by the fact that less than one in ten of respondents indicated
that they were less likely to vote for a parliament as a result of Princess
Diana's death (which came a mere 10 days before the vote), and despite
the fact that 37% said the events surrounding her death made them more
proud of being British.
THE CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTION
Before the Referendum in September, the ICM polls showed support for
Independence varying between 26% and 29%; for Home Rule between 37% and
48%; and for the status quo between 24% and 30%. The ICM polls after the
Referendum continued to ask the constitutional option question, and showed
Home Rule steady at 48%, with support for the status quo falling back
to 17% and 21%. Independence was somewhat higher than pre-Referendum at
28% and 33%, confirming that the main constitutional battle thereafter
was between Home Rule and Independence. The status quo had ceased to be
an option. The complex relationship, however, between voting and constitutional
preferences persisted.
table 1: Cross-voting: Voting Intention by Constitutional Option (ICM
polls)
|
Labour voters
for Independence
|
SNP voters
for Home Rule
|
|
July 97
|
27%
|
42%
|
|
Aug 97
|
30%
|
36%
|
|
Sept 97
|
27%
|
33%
|
|
Sept 97
|
24%
|
28%
|
|
Feb 98
|
24%
|
31%
|
|
April 98
|
30%
|
33%
|
VOTING IN A SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT
When polling recommenced after the May 1997 general election, Labour,
which had a 23 percentage point lead over its nearest challengers, the
SNP, continued to be by far Scotland's most popular party (see figure
2). While its margin over the SNP had narrowed over the last 12 months,
it still had a 14 point lead in the polls. However, a different story
was told when pollsters began to ask about voting intentions for an Edinburgh
parliament. As figure 3 indicates, by the early months of 1998, the SNP's
standing drew level and then overtook Labour's so that by April 1998,
it was 5 points, and by May/June, 9 points ahead. A similar picture emerged
from ICM polls for The Scotsman. In its February poll, Labour's lead over
the SNP was 12 points compared with 21 points for Westminster elections.
A MORI telephone survey for The Mail on Sunday in March 1998 reinforced
this Westminster/Holyrood differential. While Labour had a lead over the
SNP for Westminster of 32 points, in Scottish parliamentary elections
it had fallen to 6 points. This poll achieved a degree of publicity because
it showed that a majority of Scots - 47% to 40% - preferred Independence
to Home Rule. This was reinforced by the view that 62% of those questioned
thought Scotland would be Independent within 15 years, and 75% that it
would be Independent within 50 years, though only 25% put the figure at
5 years.
The problem with asking a simple 'how would you vote' question is that
electors will have two votes in an Edinburgh parliamentary election. ICM's
April 1998 poll devised two questions for this purpose. The first asked:
'Your first vote will be for one member for a constituency as Westminster.
If the elections were held now, which party would you vote for?'. The
second question asked: 'Your second vote will be for a list of candidates
put up by each party to represent your region of Scotland. You can vote
for the same party as you did with your first vote or for a different
party. If the elections were held now which party would get your second
vote?'. The results were as follows:
table 2: Scottish Parliamentary Elections, first and second vote
|
Lab
|
SNP
|
Con
|
SLD
|
Lab-SNP
|
|
1st vote
|
36%
|
32
|
11
|
7
|
+4
|
|
2nd vote
|
31%
|
34
|
10
|
10
|
-3
|
|
(vote intention in British GE
|
36%
|
20
|
12
|
7
|
+16)
|
The key to understanding these shifts lies in vote-switching between
the parties. The most significant feature is that while 30% of those voting
Labour on 1st vote would vote SNP on 2nd vote, only 20% of SNP 1st voters
would vote Labour on 2nd vote. Sixty seven percent of SNP voters said
they would do likewise on the 2nd vote, while Labour could manage only
60% vote retention. In similar fashion, the SNP is able to pick up 13%
of the Tory vote, and 12% of the LibDem vote. A similar picture emerges
if we do the same calculation on the basis of how people said they voted
at the 1997 general election. Labour manages to retain only 54% of its
1997 vote on the 2nd vote, while the SNP holds on to 67% of its 1997 vote.
What is particularly worrying for Labour is that its Westminster vote
holds up well (see table 2) where it has a lead of 16 percentage points
over the SNP. As one might expect, there is agreement among respondents
that there is better reason for voting SNP in Scottish elections than
for Westminster ones (68% to 35%).
The poll a month later - in May/June - confirmed these trends. While
Labour led the SNP on the first vote by 40% to 35%, on the second vote,
the SNP was ahead by 31% to 29%, identical margins as the April poll.
What caught the eye in the May/June poll was that a majority of respondents
said they would vote for an Independent Scotland in a referendum (52%),
reversing an earlier System Three poll which put support for Independence
at 34%. This led to a dispute about question wording. Whereas the System
Three poll used the word 'separation', the ICM poll question asked: 'In
a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote? - with
two options available: 'I agree that Scotland should become an independent
country' - 52%, and 'I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent
country' - 41%. Support for Independence was strongest among young people
(63%), and skilled manual workers (60%), with more Labour voters opting
for Independence (48% to 44%).
The ICM April poll explored attitudes to coalition politics. It found
62% supporting the idea of a coalition government formed by 2 parties,
with 33% supporting single-party government. The preferred party coalition
was Labour and the Liberal Democrats (50%), although a SNP/LibDem coalition
was not far behind on 44%. Interestingly, Tories split 49/43 on these
options, and LibDems themselves 50/45, suggesting that a non-Labour government
is viewed as a distinct option by voters.
As regards the revenue of a Scottish parliament, almost half (47%) agreed
that it should accept funding from Westminster, with 38% supporting the
view that a Scottish parliament should raise all its revenues in Scotland.
Only SNP supporters were in a majority on this latter position (51%),
with Tories weakest (22%). Respondents were almost equally divided on
whether the tax-varying powers which loomed so large in the referendum,
and which were supported by 63% in the actual vote, should be used. Forty
eight percent agreed that income tax should be increased by up to 3p in
the £ to be spent on more public services, with 43% agreeing that income
tax rates should stay as they are. Only 6% argued they this tax should
be reduced by up to 3p in the £.
NATIONAL IDENTITY
In terms of national identity, the findings of the ICM September poll
were broadly in line with previous ones on the issue. Twenty nine percent
said they were Scottish not British, 30% more Scottish than British, 28%
equally Scottish and British, 2% more British than Scottish, and 8% British
not Scottish. The May/June ICM poll repeated the question, and the results
were comparable, with 26% saying they were Scottish not British, 33% more
Scottish than British, 26% equally Scottish and British, with 5% more
British than Scottish, and 7% that they were British not Scottish. Those
forefronting Scottishness were young people, and skilled manual workers.
As before, there is no simple relationship between voting intention and
national identity, with only 37% of SNP voters saying they considered
themselves Scottish not British, and the largest number - 41% - that they
were more Scottish than British.
MINISTERIAL POPULARITY
There can be little doubt that government ministers in Scotland have
not had it easy in the year or so since the general election. Nevertheless,
they can take comfort from the findings that their satisfaction levels
are high. Donald Dewar earns a 68% to 12% satisfaction to dissatisfaction
score, although opinion was broadly split between Dewar and Salmond as
regards who would make the best First Minister in a Scottish parliament
(41% to 40% respectively). Conservative and LibDem voters opted for the
Labour over the SNP leader. Other Scottish Ministers earned good satisfaction
ratings: Sam Galbraith with 51/17; Brian Wilson 44/19; Henry McLeish 40/15;
Callum McDonald 28/16; and Lord Sewel (26/19 - reflecting in large part
the fact that only 31% have actually heard of the minister for agriculture
who has a seat in the Lords). The Prime Minister Tony Blair received mixed
reviews. Marginally more thought him 'out of touch with the needs of people
in Scotland' (46%) than thought him in touch (45%).
THE GLASGOW FACTOR
ICM's February poll contained a boosted sample of 508 in Glasgow. In
a putative local election, 35% said they would vote Labour, but 29% that
they would vote SNP, with Tories and LibDems taking up the rear with 10%
and 5% respectively. While nearly 8 to 1 agreed with the view that the
embattled Lord Provost Pat Lally should step down, Glasgow's citizens
were not minded to think ill of all their councillors. Only 7% thought
that all councillors were corrupt, but 82% that some were, and some weren't.
Only 3% thought none were corrupt. Similarly, they were fairly sanguine
about the effect of recent allegations on the city's reputation. Twenty
nine percent thought it had been damaged a lot, 46% a little, and 22%
not at all.
Finally, this ICM poll asked about religious sectarianism. A majority
of Glasgow citizens (55%, disproportionately young, male, Labour voters)
thought sectarianism 'a big problem', with 34% that it was a small problem,
and a mere 6% that it was no problem at all. There was little difference
between Catholics and Protestants in this assessment, with 58% and 57%
respectively thinking it a serious problem. As regards the contribution
of the city's two main football clubs to sectarianism, Rangers come out
worse than Celtic. Fifty three percent thought the former have not done
enough (even most Protestants think this), while Celtic were adjudged
to have done more (44% to 40%). Glaswegians opt 55% to 40% to end separate
Catholic education in Scotland, compared with a breakdown of 54/39 in
Scotland as a whole. Catholics split 38/59, with Protestants opting 58/34.
Those wishing to end separate schooling were disproportionately male,
SNP voters, and the middle classes.
APPENDIX
(a) System Three carried out the following polls for The Herald:
Poll on a Scottish Parliament: 1039 adults at 39 sampling points throughout
Scotland between 6-7 September 1997.
Voting Intentions for Westminster and Scottish Parliaments: 1019 adults
in 38 constituencies throughout Scotland between 23-28 April 1998.
Voting Intentions for a Scottish Parliament: October 1997 (N=864); January
1998 (N=851); February 1998 (N=886); March 1998 (N=863); April 1998 (N=870).
(b) ICM carried out the following polls:
June 1997 (N=1801) for The Scotsman
July 1997 (N=1007) for Scotland on Sunday
August 1997 (N=1001) for The Scotsman
September 1997 (N=1010) for Scotland on Sunday
September 1997 (N=1809) for The Scotsman
February 1998 (N=1022) for The Scotsman
April 1998 (N=1017) for Scotland on Sunday
May/June 1998 (N=1000) for The Scotsman
(c) MORI carried out a poll for The Mail on Sunday in March 1998 (N=862).
The Scottish Affairs editors are grateful to the polling organisations
System Three, ICM and MORI and their respective sponsors, The Herald,
The Scotsman/Scotland on Sunday, and The Mail on Sunday for permission
to use these polls.
David McCrone
Professor of Sociology
University of Edinburgh
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